
Pyramid estimates that the Chinese market will surpass Japan by 2014,
growing at a compound annual growth rate of 8.8 percent between this
year and then.
Daniel Yu, Pyramid Research analyst said: "China, like many
emerging markets, is becoming an increasingly mobile market, adding
71.2 million mobile subscriptions in 2008, roughly 12 percent of all
additions worldwide and second only to India's 113.3 million net
additions."
Rising penetration of mobile services will push revenue growth
from 58 percent at year-end 2009 to 80 percent at year-end 2014, with
mobile services expected to account for more than 76 percent of total
services revenue in the country by then.
The growth of China's mobile industry will weather the economic
decline, driven by the rollout of 3G networks and extended coverage
into rural areas. Yu highlighted China Mobile dedicating 30 percent of
its total capital expenditure to 2G network expansion, and 70 percent
of that allocation to the rural market.
Another analyst firm, Gartner, remarked last year that China's
growth in broadband penetration will lead the next wave of growth in
the region. However, Gartner's report also noted that service providers
in the emerging markets will focus on increasing connections and will
not be able to raise the level of additional services to match that of
mature markets.
Since the awarding of the country's 3G licenses in January,
China's operators have been working to accelerate roll out of the
faster networks. This is expected to spark a new wave of 3G investments
in the market, although China's delay to award the licenses was said to
have stalled investment, as carriers remained cautious.
Last year, China Mobile, the largest telco in China, reportedly faced obstacles in its efforts to win rights to iPhone Nano on the way to China first?, in part because its 3G network was not yet ready.
Victoria Ho of ZDNet Asia reported from Singapore.
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